I’m betting on Obama
During the heated contest between Hilary and Barack, I became extremely interested in the American political scene, and I might add, for the first time. I’ve often been reproved by friends and relatives for my apolitical attitude throughout the years. But what was it that pulled me in? Was it the fact that I’m 55 now and have finally exhausted my youthful apathy? Or maybe since I’ve now been an expatriate living in Italy for 20 years, I’ve grown homesick and nostalgic? I think it was that I became fed up with the way things have gone lately, especially with the war in Iraq. We were suddenly considering the possibility of a woman or a black man as president. That would get anyone’s attention.
As I watched, and read, I became fascinated by the intensity of the supporters. I honestly don’t know if that level of interest and enthusiasm is normal, this being my first time following things, but I loved it. I began leaning towards Obama and after hearing a few speeches, or excerpts thereof, I became a fan. I began predicting his success in the Primary.
Now my prediction is that he’ll win by a landslide over McCain, live up to his promises, more or less, and make the US a great nation once again. Now, please don’t get me wrong. I’m not trying to pass myself off as an expert in these matters. I don’t have a career in journalism under my belt, and as I’ve said many times, I only recently took interest at all. I have tremendous respect for the real experts, Marc Cooper being one. His wonderful blog often extols the virtues of Obama, see here and here. And truthfully there is no shortage of blogs like his, professional writers, journalists, political pundits, all pushing the Democratic ticket. Certainly these people cannot be immune to prejudices and therefore their comments could be tainted, for example, by contempt for the current administration, hatred of the war in Iraq, concerns for the economy, any number of things.
I chanced upon an article a while back which seemed to have the answer, if the question is simply who is most likely to win. The odds-makers in Las Vegas are completely free of preconceived ideas. Theirs is an untainted prediction, no emotion, no agenda, only a single minded effort at setting the odds in such an exactly fair way that they make money. Read this.